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The Case For FOMC Rate Hike March 15, 2011 and Potential Macro Trade Idea.
I've found a rhythmic repetition to the start and end of every major easing and tightening campaign conducted by the Federal Reserve over the last 15 years. Should this cycle continue we can expect to...
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8/5/2010 Email Forecasting Additional QE and Study
Additional QE or QE2 Forecasted on AUG 5th 2010. (Over next 3 months gold makes almost 20% move higher.) I studied quantitative easing in the great depression, and came across strong...
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9/1/2008 Email Bearish Beans (12%, 4 day break)
Here was a call in beans back on 9/1/2008, looking for a break based on a 1979 analog as well as fundamental considerations.1979 analog, very similar, looking for Sept 2 break. (Grey candles= current,...
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9/27/2008 Email Bearish Beans Suggest Buying out of Money Puts (30% Break in...
Email I sent out on 9-27-2008, where based off chart of the Chinese Yuan and topping formation in beans, I like buying put options for 1/2 cent, or $25. 1 month later these would have been worth 50x...
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6/7/2010 Email Bearish Cotton (5% Cotton Break)
5% Cotton BreakAn email I sent for a job which got me a prop trading offer. Notice the time lag between the date I sent the original message and when they replied, They replied the day the cotton...
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9/4/2007 Email Bullish Crude at $78 Calling Target $105, (+30% )
An email I sent where I said crude above $78 and it explodes to $105. From the chart below the email you can see it really did just go one way after it took out $78.OUTCOME: Trade gave you no heat and...
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4/8/10 Bullish Sugar, Again 6/10/10 just before 150% Rally.
Did not email these but had taken screen shots at the time. See bottom right corner of the charts. Was bullish early April which was a little early.Sugar Monthly Chart6/10/2010Although 2 months...
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Jan 2008 Email Bearish Stocks, Forecasted 2003 levels.
1/2/2008 Email Bearish StocksEmail I sent Tom Rubio, founder of Breakwater Trading, who then forwarded it to the Founder of Peak6, as well as the rest of our firms traders. I was extremely bearish...
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1/21/2009 40% Move in Gold
Below is an email I had sent back on Jan 21,2009, calling exactly a 40% move in gold, giving a price level to add on a pullback which wouldn't have given you $3 worth of heat, but allowed you to ride...
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Saved Charts from Nov 2009 and Sept 2010 Projecting $40 Silver Once Above...
Here are a couple charts of Silver. I’ve been bullish silver and gold since 2006, unfortunately I cannot provide any emails or time stamped evidence to you. But what I look to show you here is an...
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Talking about $93.40 Crude Oil in 2005, when Crude was trading $56
I’ve had a passion for the markets since I was a 13 years old when I had to apply to get my workers permit so I clerk during summer at the Chicago Board of Trade. I found this old chart from 2005...
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5/14/2010 Email: Bearish Stocks. 1930 Chart Analog. (5 day, 6.5% Break).
Comparing the top of the bear market rally in 1930 with the top in April 2010, I found a strikingly similar picture. Even the “flash crash” on May 6th 2010, lined up with the big break May 5th 1930....
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3rd Place in Barrons Stock Competition, November 1, 2007 through March 28 2008
The competition was only open to Students and Professors but the girl I was dating was in graduate school for photography so I had her sign up and give me the logins. Full ArticlePublished in Barrons...
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3/7/2009 Email: Bullish a Brazilian Sugar Company, Cosan Sugar. Stated Target...
Here is an email I wrote my grandfather suggesting he buy Cosan Sugar, a Brazilian Sugar company. I was bullish this stock and also bullish Sugar At that time Cosan was trading $2.5 and I said risk...
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3/31/2010 Bearish China Share Prices; Position Reinforced When I Learned via...
A good example of my feel for market psychology and crowd behavior was back in spring, China was in the process of allowing margin trading, short selling and launching its first equity index future 6...
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4/8/2010 Email: Bullish Gold and Silver "Parabolic”
This next email provides a couple things. First it provides a significant part of my reasoning to relocate from the United States, that being the US debt problem. I say metals are close to going...
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12-27-2009 Email Suggesting "New Theme" Could be Sovereign Debt Problems
Part of my analysis involves taking notice to things like this. Here is an email I sent my father on Dec 27, 2009 suggesting that the Dubai default was part of a macro event, a wave of sovereign...
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Was the Fed facilitated takeover of Bear Stearns by JP Morgan what broke...
Intro:In this report I wish to do two things; first I’d like to use the recently released Federal Reserve lending data to show the Federal Reserves obvious attempt to mislead the public about lending...
View ArticleBlog Objective / Macro Portfolio Page
I appreciate you taking the time to visit this page.Interested in opportunities with Macro hedge fund, asset / wealth management, or commodity trading house. Up to this point my performance records...
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